Well, Friends Near and Far… It’s that time of year again, OSCARS! And despite the controversy surrounding this year’s event, I’m as Oscar-obsessed as ever. For the first time ever, I’ve seen absolutely every single nominated film!!! I’m pretty excited about this, although sadly, I’ve probably seen more of the films than most of the voters. Honestly, I think there was a pretty paltry crop this year, with most of the films suffering from some unforgivable flaws, but there were some excellent stand-outs still. So without further ado, here are my ‘Picks and Predicts’ (and a few ‘I wouldn’t be surprised if’s’) for the 2016 Academy Awards….
- Original Screenplay= Pick: Spotlight, Predict: Spotlight, I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If: Straight Outta Compton
- Although Ex Machina was one of my favorite films of the year, I just don’t think any other script holds a candle to Spotlight, but Straight Outta Compton may win to assuage the white guilt of Academy voters. “No, I swear, some of my best friends are black…”
- Adapted Screenplay= Pick: The Big Short, Predict: The Big Short.
- I’d be really shocked if it didn’t go this way.
- Visual Effects= Pick: Ex Machina, Predict: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If: Any of the others…
- I think this is seriously the tightest category of the year. Everybody loves Star Wars, I loved the bodies in Ex Machina, but seriously? The bear attack? Everything about Mars? I even can’t crab too much about Mad Max in this category. Everything was phenomenal.
- Sound Mixing= Pick: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Predict: The Martian.
- These could actually be flipped. They’re space movies, it’s a sound category. ‘Nuff said.
- Sound Editing= Pick: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Predict: The Martian.
- See previous comments.
- Live Action Short Film= Pick: Ave Maria, Predict: Day One
- I loved the skewering of religious silliness in Ave Maria in such a creative fashion, to me, this is what short film making is all about, a brief piece that makes such a strong statement that couldn’t really be feature length. All the other entries are solid, except Day One, which is overwrought nonsense with so many technical errors to make it implausible on so many levels. Of course, it spotlights the confusion of our involvement in the Middle East; I’m sure Hollywood loves it.
- Animated Short Film= Pick: World of Tomorrow, Predict: Sanjay’s Super Team
- Prologue was weak. Bear Story and We Can’t Live without Cosmos were both exceptional portrayals of grief. But World of Tomorrow absolutely blew my mind. It was certainly one of my favorite films of the year period, so utterly fantastic, but… it’s going up against Pixar. Sigh…
- Production Design= Pick: The Martian, Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road, I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If: The Revenant.
- Each of these films was fantastic in this category… Yes, you did just hear me say that about two films that I hated, Mad Max and The Revenant, but with Production Design, I just can’t criticize.
- Original Song= Pick: “Til It Happens to You” The Hunting Ground. Predict: “Til It Happens to You” The Hunting Ground.
- I’d be absolutely dumbfounded if it didn’t go this way. Great song+Lady Gaga+Great film+Super important topic+The song actually plays a role in the film=Oscar Gold. Both the songs and the films, Fifty Shades of Grey and Spectre were terrible. I missed where “Manta Ray” was in Racing Extinction and although I would argue for “Simple Song #3” from Youth because of the songs role in the movie, the song itself just isn’t that good.
- Original Score= Pick: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Predict: The Hateful Eight.
- Everybody seems to be swoony over Eight’s score, but I found it irritating and come on, it’s Star Wars… Duuuuuh, duuuuuh… da da da, duuuuuh, duuuuh…
- Makeup and Hairstyling= Pick: The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared, Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road. I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If: The Revenant
- It’s the same damn actor in 100 Years! Are you kidding me?! That’s Oscar gold! …But it won’t get it because, you know, mean clown makeup and Leo being dirty are way better. Sigh…
- Foreign Language Film= Pick: Embrace of the Serpent, Predict: Son of Saul.
- Embrace was absolutely one of my favorite films of the year, simply breathtaking. Theeb is everything The Revenant wishes it was, but Son of Saul is a Jewish Holocaust movie, not the best story, but at least it’s stunning in every below-the-line aspect.
- Film Editing= Pick: Spotlight (just barely above The Big Short), Predict: The Revenant.
- For The Big Short and Spotlight to both tell such complex stories in such a compelling manner without ever dragging is a true testament to an editor, but I suspect The Revenant will win despite having terrible editing. Seriously, at least a quarter of that movie should have ended up on the cutting room floor.
- Documentary Short Subject= Pick: Body Team 12, Predict: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness. It Wouldn’t Surprise Me If: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of Shoah.
- All of these films were fantastic except for Claude Lanzmann which was messy and pointless, but it was a Jewish Holocaust movie about a Jewish Holocaust movie. Come on, Academy…
- Documentary Feature= Pick: Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom, Predict: Cartel Land, It Wouldn’t Surprise Me If: Amy or What Happened, Miss Simone?
- I liked Amy and Simone well enough, but they weren’t nearly as well done as Ukraine or Cartel, still Hollywood loves to self-congratulate and musicians are almost actors…
- Directing= Pick: Spotlight, Predict: The Revenant.
- Costume Design= Pick: The Danish Girl, Predict: Mad Max: Fury Road, It Wouldn’t Surprise Me If: The Revenant.
- Someone is going to have to explain to me how throwing rags and bear hide on an actor is anywhere close to the craftsmanship and research required of all the other films. Cinderella would have been a shoe in if Cinderella’s costumes hadn’t been so plain compared to the glory of the stepmother and stepsister’s.
- Cinematography= Pick: The Revenant. Predict: The Revenant.
- I really disliked the film, but credit where credit is due.
- Animated Feature Film= Pick: Inside Out, Predict: Inside Out.
- I loved When Marnie Was There and Anomalisa was unlike anything we’ve ever seen before, but again Pixar and all the feels? It’s guaranteed.
- Actress in a Supporting Role= Pick: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight, Predict: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl.
- I’ve never cared for Leigh, but this is a perfect performance in a perfect role for her. However, Alicia Vikander stole the show from Eddie Redmayne… We’ll see what happens.
- Actor in a Supporting Role= Pick: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies, Predict: Tom Hardy, The Revenant
- This is a pretty tight category; I think it could probably actually go to anyone, except maybe Mark Ruffalo, I loved him in Spotlight, but he just didn’t have a role that made him stretch as far as the other nominees.
- Actress in a Leading Role= Pick: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years, Predict: Cate Blanchett, Carol, It Wouldn’t Surprise Me If: Brie Larson, Room
- Charlotte Rampling’s last scene is the stuff of legend. Perfect, powerful acting with nothing but the slight changes to her face to let us know exactly what’s happening in her mind. But, everybody always loves Cate and for reasons unbeknownst to me, Brie Larson being dirty, histrionic, and moody seems to have charmed.
- Actor in a Leading Role= Pick: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs, Predict: Leonardo Dicaprio, The Revenant.
- Michael Fassbender carries the entire movie without a bear attack, playing gay, or any effects. It is absolutely the best performance, but Leo will get it because he ate a fish and his body of work has never been awarded.
AND FINALLY…
- Best Picture= Pick: Spotlight, Predict: The Revenant.
- This is the Republican primary category and The Revenant is Donald Trump. By no means the best picture, but the sort of fan it draws will not be divided, whereas smart, sharp, thoughtful votes will divide between The Big Short and Spotlight and the other films will pick up the fragments left behind.
So, without anything further to say… ENJOY THE OSCARS, KIDS!!!!!!