If you missed my Picks and Predicts yesterday, scroll down. But here’s some thoughts on how the categories themselves will go:
Best Picture: Phantom Thread is hands down the most perfect picture of the year. However, it doesn’t address any major social controversy. Call Me isn’t very good and only pulls votes based on demographics. Lady Bird isn’t “big” enough. Darkest and Dunkirk will flounder in the “this isn’t the history we care about right now” shadows. Get Out just won’t be able to pull enough votes; Jordan Peele is brand new and no one is confident he’ll give the speech they want to hear and it’s a horror film. And The Post never quite brings the emotional wallop, which leaves us with The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. The Shape of Water is a far superior film, but doesn’t have the social critique’s that Three Billboards does. Hollywood sees Billboards poignantly addressing racism and sexism, while sticking it to the man. (By the way, it doesn’t. It’s rather stupid and flawed on these points, but that’s another matter.) I suspect covering that trifecta will give Billboards the win this year.
Actor in a Leading Role: This is a fight between Oldman, Washington, and Day-Lewis. Chalamet and Kaluuya are too new and Chalamet isn’t that good. He just broods… in everything. Oldman is fantastic, but Day-Lewis is fantastic AND said this is his last film. Confession: I’m not a huge Washington fan, but this is by far the best performance… In the weakest movie. So, it’s likely to be Day-Lewis. Good performance, best movie, and he’s an icon retiring.
Actor in a Supporting Role: ROBBERY!! This is one of the flattest and most confused categories. Rockwell may get it because the Academy likes to see long-working actors receive their due. Plummer by far turns in the best performance. Dafoe is not very good in a TERRIBLE film. Harrelson is as always. And I can’t figure out the fawning over Jenkins this year, is it because the character is closeted? This SHOULD have gone to Idris Elba in Molly’s Game for his subtle shift between doubt to conviction and his phenomenal monologue near the end. OscarsSoWhite.
Actress in a Leading Role: Strong performances mostly by every entry; although Ronan is just being a spoiled teenager and she’s up against heavy hitters. Robbie actually learned to skate for the film, but the Academy won’t reward such an unlikeable character. Everyone’s tired of Streep winning. This is a shootout between Hawkins and McDormand. Hawkins was fully expressive without EVER SAYING A WORD. But McDormand was fiery. Hawkins is by far the better performance the more I think about it, but McDormand will win.
Actress in a Supporting Role: Manville is by far the best, turning in a perfectly controlled, simmering performance. Janney and Metcalf are doing similar things and won’t be able to outshine each other or the other entries. Blige is unrecognizably good… in a pretty mediocre film. This may be her real breakout into bigger, more serious, film roles, but it’s not her Oscar. Spencer’s playing the role she always does, but it will deliver her another win this year.
Animated Feature Film: Coco is the obvious winner here. Loving Vincent is remarkable and breathtaking. The achievement is absolutely incredible, but the story is totally straightforward. The Breadwinner is just fine, not sure what Ferdinand is doing here; I’m guessing the Academy wanted to acknowledge the background and layout artists more than anything. The Boss Baby is surprisingly excellent, but has no chance.
Cinematography: I may be confused on this one. Darkest Hour really stuck with me, but I the sweep of Dunkirk is likely to be favored by the Academy. I have no idea why Mudbound is here. Or Blade Runner really. The Shape of Water is quite good, but it’s going up against planes and boats and war and all of that. It’s a tough argument.
Costume Design: More dramatic period pieces generally almost always win out here, leaving Darkest Hour and The Shape of Water unlikely to win. Beauty and the Beast is fantastic and will outperform Victoria and Abdul for that styling, but Phantom Thread is a love letter to the neuroticism of costume designers… AND its costumes are fantastic. No one else stands a chance.
Directing: I simply LOVED what Peele did with Get Out, but he doesn’t have the Hollywood leverage to pull this off. Del Toro is a Hollywood sweetheart whose time has come with this picture. Hollywood wants to make him the “belle of the ball.” Nolan and Anderson will cancel each other out. If Gerwig wins, it is ONLY because of political MeToo pushback.
Documentary Feature: Faces Places is by far the best film, a beautiful lamentation on art, time, and memory, gorgeously captured… It may ACTUALLY be the most meaningful topic, but most viewers will only see a film about an aging French photographer, unlikely to win. Icarus’ director had the unfortunate experience of setting out to make one film and hobbling another together as a major story unfolded, which makes it hard to stitch together a narrative, plus in this political climate, doping seems quaint. Abacus is excellent documentary filmmaking, but this issue is so far in our review mirror now that it won’t have much pull. Last Men is BY FAR the most important film, but it’s still not the solid film we want to see about the White Helmets. Strong Island will likely win because it paints itself as if it’s about racism and injustice. It’s not. It’s just a sad story told through the biased eyes of grief. It’s pretty much the black documentary version of Three Billboards.
Documentary Short Subject: Oye! This is a tight category, with the exception of Edith+Eddie which isn’t very good, too many questions unanswered. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 is a perfect short doc. Perfect. It unfolds beautifully and what you think is just going to be a sad story about art and mental illness blossoms into a rich tapestry of a human life. Herion(e) and Knife Skills are the same sort of film about the same sort of subject and will likely cancel each other out. Traffic Stop is likely to be the big gimme pushback against OscarsSoWhite… Except it’s terrible and skewed and not at all representative of the problem of how law enforcement treats minorities. Still. Likely to win.
Film Editing: Ugh. Baby Driver. No. We get it already. Look at the cool stuff cars can do. Dunkirk; editors do love a war pic. I don’t know why Billboards is here. I, Tonya ought to get it. Margot Robbie LOOKS LIKE SHE CAN SKATE LIKE TONYA HARDING. I mean, hello!!! But, as previously mentioned, Del Toro is the sweetheart this year.
Foreign Language Film: Loveless and The Square will cancel each other out. The Square is existential white nonsense and the Academy will pull away from awarding Russians anything due to the political climate. A Fantastic Woman has a lot of political clout from the transgender factor, but it’s actually not very good, but will likely outperform The Insult. This category can sometimes be a de facto boxing ring for Arab-Jewish relations, but with no Israeli film this year, the voters who vote along those lines on both sides may run to the political statement of A Fantastic Woman over The Insult. Still, On Body and Soul is by far the best, most gorgeous, creative and moving film in the category.
Makeup and Hairstyling: ROBBERY!!!! Are you f*cking kidding me?! What happened in this category this year?! The one chance to see one of my favorite movies win a legit award and it didn’t even get a nomination?! This Oscar should go to It. You’ve got 2 aging entries up against Wonder. Making Gary Oldman look like Winston Chruchill is more of a feat than making Judi Dench look like Queen Victoria. Whatever. I don’t care. It. It. It. It. IT!!!
Original Score: One of the tightest categories and all worthy. Star Wars is unlikely because it’s excellent, but we’ve heard it before. I thought Phantom Thread was beautiful. Dunkirk communicated emotion perfectly, as did Water and Billboards. I’m throwing a dart here. Who knows what’ll happen. There’s no wrong pick.
Original Song: God damn it. Can we stop nominating songs that are period inappropriate, have nothing to do with the film, and are just over the end crawl. Please?! I’m looking at you, “Mighty River” (Mudbound) and “Stand Up for Something” (Marshall). “Mystery of Love” (Call Me by Your Name) isn’t central to the film. This is a boxing match between “Remember Me” (Coco) and “This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman). It’s virtually impossible to pick between the two. “This Is Me” is empowering, central to the film, AND it’s in a musical. But “Remember Me” will make you cry, is central to the film, and is animation… But it’s got the Disney Pixar punch behind it. Likely to win. But most of these songs were nominated for their performance value at the ceremony itself, me thinks.
Production Design: This is just a gorgeous crop this year. Blade Runner captures dystopia perfectly. The heaviness of the time is marvelously conveyed by Darkest Hour and Dunkirk, who will likely cancel each other out. Beauty and the Beast would be unstoppable any other year with its sweeping perfection, but the creativity of The Shape of Water is likely unbeatable.
Animated Short Film: Oye! What a category! With the exception of Dear Basketball, which is quite good, but doesn’t punch at the weight of the other films, it’s an exceptionally difficult field this year. Pixar is rarely beatable in this category, but although the creativity behind the main character in Lou is fun, the story isn’t as powerful as in past years and, given a weak entry, voters are happy to award someone other than Pixar. It’s difficult to remember a more masterful, gorgeous film in this category than Garden Party… But the underlying gruesome darkness of the story may turn voters away. I wept through Negative Spaces; it’s EVERYTHING an animated short should be. In 5 minutes, it tells a full story that packs a wallop with whimsy, creativity, and humor. It’s perfect. But… With Magic Light getting its fourth Oscar nod with a film based on Roald Dahl that clocks in at over an hour, the fight’s just not fair. This is likely the Brit’s year to win with Revolting Rhymes.
Live Action Short Film: There is no question that The Eleven O’Clock is the very best entry, but it’s also simply entertaining and the Academy will lean towards making a statement. The Silent Child never finds its footing and gets preachy, and deafness is a low topical priority right now. Watu Wote/All of Us would have been likely to win, it’s a true story, well done, about Muslims protecting Christians. My Nephew Emmett will pull voters compelled to cast along racial lines if they know nothing of the true story of Emmett Till. If you know the history, the film is so surprisingly lacking in the important aftermath that it’s a wonder it got nominated. Here’s the thing, voting was still occurring in the aftermath of the Parkland shooting. For that reason alone, DeKalb Elementary is likely to win. It’s a decent short based on a true event and it draws attention to the true terror of an AR-15 in a school. (Side note: I HATED the video interludes of the team’s being nominated this year during the screening, absolutely unfairly biasing.)
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing: A rare perfect overlap in these two categories this year, and each film really is an exceptional entry on both counts, but Dunkirk clearly pulls above the rest; there’s not a single flaw in either category. Although I do think The Shape of Water is just the tiniest bit better in mixing, voters in this category generally pull towards bigger, so I suspect Dunkirk will sweep.
Visual Effects: OH my gosh! The tightest category by far when something as visually fantastic as Blade Runner likely doesn’t have a chance. I have no idea what the hell is going to happen here. Guardians will likely get pushed out because we’ve seen most of it before. And Kong and Apes will likely cancel each other out. I suspect Star Wars will win because the vultpexes (crystal foxes) and porgs (weird little puffin things) had everyone losing their minds, but there’s no wrong pick in this category, only better ones.
Adapted Screenplay: AHHHH!!! It pains me how much the Academy overlooked one of my favorite films this year, The Disaster Artist. The mastery and craftsmanship required to stitch an amazing script to a terrible one should be rewarded. It likely won’t be. Mudbound isn’t very good, but will pull voters who cast along racial lines. Why is Logan in here? A superhero script that just barely makes itself about something gets an Oscar nod? Come on, Academy. Molly’s Game does an excellent job telling a complicated story, but still, if you don’t know poker, you likely couldn’t quite follow. Which leaves Call Me by Your Name. Actually a terribly silly film that everyone will be embarrassed to have fawned over in 20 years, but for right now, it’s going to get the vote for political reasons alone. Meh.
Original Screenplay: One of the worst categories this year, all entries are fatally flawed in some way. The Big Sick can’t compete with the other Academy darlings this year. Voters will want to award Get Out and this is the only real category to do it, they should, but I still suspect they won’t. Plus, it suffers from the same major flaw that The Big Sick does: WHY exactly do the two respective leads like their white girlfriends? Because they’re white? Neither supporting female lead is developed at all, so these films actually contribute to the racial narratives that they allegedly push against: brown men are lucky just to get a white girlfriend, who cares if they’re paper thin. Frankly, if the writers were women or white men, there’d likely be an outcry about the one-dimensional quality of the relationships. I suspect this is as good as Kumail Nanjiani can do, but I have higher hopes for Jordan Peele. Anyhow, Lady Bird has sharp, snappy dialogue, but likely can’t beat out the behemoths The Shape of Water and Billboards. Since Del Toro is likely to charm the Academy in more visual categories, I suspect he’ll lose out in writing. Billboards is likely to win for its searing dialogue and fairly unique story.
Well there you have it!!! Let’s go to the Oscars!!!