Well, without further ado, here are my “Picks and Predicts” for the 90th Annual Oscars! Scroll down to see all my rationalizing.
Best Picture: Pick: Phantom Thread; Predict: Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Actor in a Leading Role: Pick: Denzel Washington; Predict: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actor in a Supporting Role: Pick: Christopher Plummer; Predict: Sam Rockwell
Actress in a Leading Role: Pick: Frances McDormand; Predict: Frances McDormand
Actress in a Supporting Role: Pick: Lesley Manville; Predict: Octavia Spencer
Animated Feature Film: Pick: Coco; Predict: Coco
Cinematography: Pick: Darkest Hour; Predict: Dunkirk
Costume Design: Pick: Phantom Thread; Predict: Phantom Thread
Directing: Pick: Get Out; Predict: The Shape of Water
Documentary Feature: Pick: Faces Places; Strong Island
Documentary Short Subject: Pick: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405; Predict: Traffic Stop
Film Editing: Pick: I, Tonya; Predict: The Shape of Water
Foreign Language Film: Pick: On Body and Soul; Predict: A Fantastic Woman
Makeup and Hairstyling: Pick: Darkest Hour; Predict: Darkest Hour
Original Score: Pick: Dunkirk; Predict: The Shape of Water
Original Song: Pick: “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman; Predict: “Remember Me,” Coco
Production Design: Pick: The Shape of Water; Predict: The Shape of Water
Animated Short Film: Pick: Negative Space; Predict: Revolting Rhymes
Live Action Short: Pick: The Eleven O’Clock; Predict: DeKalb Elementary
Sound Editing: Pick: Dunkirk; Predict: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Pick: The Shape of Water; Predict: Dunkirk
Visual Effects: Pick: Star Wars: The Last Jedi; Predict: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Adapted Screen Play: Pick: The Disaster Artist; Predict: Call Me by Your Name
Original Screenplay: Pick: Get Out; Predict: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Well, the one thing that I know about the Oscars this year is that I have NO idea how the Academy is going to go. I suspect it’s going to be a highly unpredictable season, that reflects the highly unpredictable nature of America right now. Under normal circumstances, the Oscars can be predicted pretty well by considering what nominee is ACTUALLY the best and most original in each category (not always as hard as one might imagine), then considering its level of importance to the film (For example, if a film revolves around a particular song, it’s going to be a stronger contender for a win than a song incidentally in the credits.); each nominee will then either be seriously bolstered by the quality of the film, its popularity, and its industry campaigning or hampered by that (A terrible film can still have a single exceptional nominee, but will likely be beaten out by the average nominee from a good, popular film.) Lastly, one has to take into account a few extra factors: A nominee’s popularity amongst their peers (An exceptional cinematographer with a huge body of work who never ekes out the win may be favored whereas the actress who always wins may not, both regardless of the particular entry.) and whether there are extenuating circumstances. (Seriousness generally prevails in the Academy over lightheartedness, anything having to do with the Holocaust always has an advantage, but nothing pulls at the Academy like entertainment industry self-importance.) But mostly, a category can be predicted by the genuine quality of the entry balanced against the overall quality and popularity of the film with maybe a few other minor considerations.
This year, however, is a free for all. The “minor considerations” will dominate many voters’ minds and skew the results in crazy ways. Academy members will take into consideration the quality and appeal of each nominee, but that rationality will likely be completely overwhelmed by the political climate. In essence, Academy members are going to want each nominee to make a statement and push back against discrimination, populism, and societal abuses; actors who are likely to give a fiery rhetorical speech will win more votes this year. More confusingly, each particular issue will pull the categories in different directions making the outcomes even less predictable. Although overshadowed by more recent events, OscarsSoWhite won’t be too far from anyone’s mind and black nominees will pull votes. Of course, the more recent Hollywood scandal is the industry’s abuse of women, so nominees that seem to push back against a misogynistic standard will sway voters. But we also have gay and transgender films to clap back against a resurgence against homophobia. Aaaaaaaannnnnnnnddddd there are films that address police “incompetence” and brutality, as well as gun violence. In essence, a huge percentage of voters’ inclinations this year will have more to do with pissing off the religious right, Republicans, and, the highest prize, Donald Trump, than they will have to do with the specific nominees’ qualities. These factors all pushing and shoving against each other will make for one of the most unpredictable and volatile Oscars we’ve seen in a long time. One thing’s for sure: It’s going to be an interesting year. Tune in tomorrow for my last thoughts on how this plays out in each category!