Well, it’s that time of year again, so without further ado, here are my picks and predicts for the 89th Annual Oscars… (Scroll down to read my general rationale and then a few more details for each category.)
Best Picture: Pick: Moonlight; Predict: LaLa Land
Actor in a Leading Role: Pick & Predict: Denzel Washington
Actor in a Supporting Role: Pick: Michael Shannon; Predict: Mahershala Ali
Actress in a Leading Role: Pick: Isabelle Huppert; Predict: Meryl Streep
Actress in a Supporting Role: Pick & Predict: Viola Davis
Animated Feature Film: Pick: Kubo and the Two Strings; Predict: Moana
Cinematography: Pick: Moonlight; Predict: LaLa Land
Costume Design: Pick and Predict: LaLa Land
Directing: Pick: Arrival; Predict: LaLa Land
Documentary Feature: Pick: 13th; Predict: OJ: Made in America
Documentary Short Subject: Pick: The White Helmets; Predict: Joe’s Violin
Film Editing: Pick: Arrival; Predict: LaLa Land
Foreign Language Film: Pick & Predict: The Salesman
Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Original Score: Pick: Passengers; Predict: LaLa Land
Original Song: Pick: Can’t Stop the Feeling, Trolls Predict: City of Stars, LaLa Land
Production Design: Pick: Passengers; Predict: LaLa Land
Animated Short Film: Pick & Predict: Piper
Live Action Short Film: Pick & Predict: Timecode
Sound Editing: Pick: Arrival; Predict: LaLa Land
Sound Mixing: Pick: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Beghazi; Predict: Rouge One: A Star Wars Story
Visual Effects: Pick: Doctor Strange; Predict: The Jungle Book
Adapted Screenplay: Pick & Predict: Hidden Figures
Original Screenplay: Pick: Twentieth Century Women; Predict: LaLa Land
First, I think it’s going to be a strange year. As everyone knows, the winners are not simply the best in any category, but the votes are pushed and pulled by various politics and agendas. There’s a confluence of three factors here that make me feel like my bracket might be broken really early on because it might just be a wild potshot this year. First, Hollywood is absolutely obsessed with anything about Hollywood and LaLa Land deserves virtually none of the raves it’s getting, but hey, it’s about Hollywood. However, since it swept the Globes, there’s been a lot of industry push back against it and, for once, Hollywood may become self-conscious about that and vote another way. Particularly because of the other two factors here, Hollywood may actually hate Donald Trump and conservative Republicans more than they love themselves. Any category that has a candidate that may irritate the White House or a nominee that’s been particularly outspoken will pull votes. This may work to Meryl’s advantage, and you’ll likely see this significantly influence categories where LaLa Land isn’t a factor, Foreign Language, Documentary, Live Action Shorts, and Doc Shorts. Lastly, there’s going to be a strong “Some of my best friends are black” liberal white Hollywood vote to counteract the “Oscars so white” effect of last year. The benefit of this is that in almost every category, those voting self-consciously along color lines will actually likely cast their vote for the best entry. So, recognizing that these factors are going to likely swing Hollywood cattywompus this year and the only reliable prediction is that there are going to be big surprises, here are mine:
For Best Picture: Honestly, this category might be wide open and end up being a huge upset. LaLa Land seems like it could win; it’s a terrible picture, but Hollywood might not be able to quell its worst instincts and will likely vote for a picture about, well, Hollywood. If it doesn’t, Moonlight is by far the best picture because it shines in all cinematic regards AND breaks new ground, but it might be almost too avant-garde to win. Hidden Figures has been a sleeper hit that has charmed audiences and is a classic Hollywood picture. It’s got a chance. Fences is absolutely amazing, but isn’t going to get enough credit because there’s a sense of unfair advantage. It’s based on a play and Viola and Denzel have been doing it for years. Hacksaw Ridge doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell thanks to Gibson; he’s not that forgiven. Arrival would be a top candidate in other years, but has been elbowed out. It’s probably too smart. Manchester by the Sea is the most heart wrenching story, and that leaves Hell or High Water and Lion solidly landing in the, “Why did we expand this category to ten entries again?”
Actor in a Leading Role: Um. Seriously? This has got to go Denzel all the way. Casey Affleck just broods and he’s too dogged by scandal right now. Andrew Garfield seems like he’s starting to play every serious role as slightly mentally ill or moderately disabled. Mortensen is meh and Ryan Gosling is terrible… But he may win. Ugh. And seriously Hollywood, if Gosling wins over Denzel, you have NO shame.
Actor in a Supporting Role: ROBBERY!!!! Mykelti Williamson turned in the absolute scene-stealing performance in Fences and should have gotten Oscar. The minute he hits the screen it’s like, Denzel and Viola who? Anyhow, I’m really starting to love Mahershala Ali, but I don’t think this is his turn, having said that, he may pull the guilty Hollywood vote. It wouldn’t be a bad win. I don’t think Dev Patel has a chance and Lucas Hedges is overrated. Michael Shannon deserves this one, but Jeff Bridges is a more popular actor, the vote may split between the two, giving Ali the Oscar.
Actress in a Leading Role: Isabelle Huppert is an absolute marvel in Elle. Having said that, there is NO way the Academy is going to give an Oscar to this creepy, dark rape movie. Ruth Negga may pull the guilty Hollywood vote, and it was a solid performance, so it would be a good win. Natalie Portman pulled off all the close-ups, but still Jackie was wooden. Emma Stone might win, despite LaLa being terrible. Meryl put in one of her best performances, she’ll get extra votes to give her a platform for another Globes-esque speech. She’ll lose votes because everybody’s tired of Meryl winning. We’ll see what happens. Will the actual least deserving actress take home Oscar?
Actress in a Supporting Role: First, CATEGORY FRAUD! Viola deserves best lead! But there’s no chance she’s not going to win. Williams only really shines in the end of the film monologue, the same can be said for Kidman. Octavia Spencer is great, but Taraji P Henson was better. Naomie Harris was exceptional, but Oscar is going to pull away from voting for a black woman in a stereotypical crack addict role, no matter how awesome she is.
Animated Feature Film: Kubo and the Two Strings is fantastic, but Disney is competing against itself with two entries this year. It’s Laika’s turn for acknowledgement, but they’re going to get crushed one way or the other by the corporate gorilla, unless the vote splits. Don’t hold your breath. The two little guys, not a chance.
Cinematography: LaLa Land deserves a tremendous amount of credit for that opening scene. Moonlight deserves it for bold risks. Arrival, Lion, and Silence are standard entries. Silence has a chance to pull votes as a “We’re sorry, Martin, we know how much you love your film… But we just didn’t,” but not enough votes.
Costume Design: The 1960’s, the 1940’s, or the 1920’s. The general rule of thumb is that the older and more elaborate the better, unless the picture’s really terrible or you’ve really pissed somebody off. I laughed when I saw LaLa Land as an entry, but then I saw LaLa Land. Anytime a “below the line” category actually rise up to become a really meaningful character in a film, it’s going to steal the awards. LaLa Land for the win.
Directing: Moonlight deserves it. LaLa Land will get it. Gibson will likely never have a chance again. The other two might be ringers in a different year. These things happen, but Denzel should have really gotten a nod.
Documentary Feature: CATEGORY FRAUD! OJ: Made in America is NOT a documentary feature and it’s grossly unfair that it’s going to steal an Oscar away from the profoundly deserving 13th or I Am Not Your Negro. But it covers race AND it’s about LA? It’s gonna win… And that’s really wrong. Fire at Sea and Life, Animated don’t have a chance.
Documentary Short Subject: So many ways to piss Donald Trump off, so little time! My personal favorite is The White Helmets, but Watani: My Homeland may pull votes since the news broke that the Syrian family was planning on attending the Oscars, but then couldn’t get into the nation. Votes may split between the three refugee/middle east crisis movies and let Joe’s Violin pull ahead. Joe’s is also getting a lot of press and let’s not forget it has THREE subject matters that pull votes and win Oscars: the Holocaust, the importance of the arts, and a racial element. Joe’s is liable to win.
Film editing: A smart space film that jumps forward and backwards in time and has complex physics and linguistics in it, but doesn’t lose the viewer? Nah… That single shot in the film about LA is better. Sigh… That’s the way these things go sometimes. Moonlight was tight, but not that challenging. Hell or High Water? What’s this doing here? And Gibson is still being punished.
Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann was the front runner… Before the travel ban. The Salesman is the better picture and will now likely run away with Oscar in protest votes. Land of Mine and A Man Called Ove are both very good, but not capable of wrenching Oscar away and Tanna is the weakest entry. The director is crying about politics, but it’s simply not the best film. But hey! There’s going to be penis sheaths at the Oscars!
Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond is the clear front runner. I don’t think A Man Called Ove or Suicide Squad have a chance.
Original Score: Passengers was lovely. Jackie was terrible. Lion and Moonlight land in the solidly good category, but LaLaLand will win. Sigh.
Original Song: GOD DAMN IT! This is the only category that Trolls can get the hint of recognition that it deserves, and it’s by far the best song, both on its own and in relation to the movie. How Far I’ll Go is just classic Disney. The Empty Chair is in the credits and I don’t think this sort of thing should even count, but one of the stupid LaLa songs is likely to win unless the vote splits and then it’s likely to go to Moana. Harumph!
Production Design: Passengers was by far the best for creating a completely new environment that was totally believable, but it’s the least likely to win. It’s going up against the Hollywood favorite, Hollywood in the Golden Era, a much more successful space pic (that looks like it relies on smoke machines for its most interesting scenes), and the Harry Potter empire. Sigh… And the Oscar goes to LaLa Land.
Animated Short: Disney really crushes the competition here with Piper. Borrowed Time and Pearl are very good. Extra credit going to Pearl for new uses of technology. Blind Vaysha is too dark and heavy-handed, and Pear Cider and Cigarettes is just terrible.
Live Action Short Film: Silent Nights is an absolute abomination and the director should be blacklisted. Ennemis Interieurs doesn’t go anywhere. Sing and La Femme et le TGV are just nice. Timecode is absolutely amazing and transcendent. The clear winner.
Sound Editing: Of course, LaLa Land is probably going to win this one, but Arrival is infinitely better. They created aliens trying to speak, for God’s sake, what did LaLa Land do? Hacksaw Ridge will suffer from Gibson’s shadow and votes will split between Deepwater Horizon and Sully. Go, Arrival, go!!!
Sound Mixing: Giving credit where credit is due, even though I hated the movie, there was a lot of loudness in 13 Hours and I never had to turn on the subtitles, that alone gets props from me. I actually thought the mixing in LaLa Land was noticeable and oppressive, but she’s Hollywood’s sweetheart. Hacksaw Ridge=Gibson’s shadow. Arrival is actually well-deserving and could steal this award, but Rouge One adds an interesting element. Star Wars seems to always win these categories. Can the ultimate franchise be toppled? This category is up for grabs.
Visual Effects: This category is a total fist fight, every entry is fantastic, although I have to admit I’m a little confused by Kubo and the Two Strings. Can an animated feature get a nod in visual effects? Obviously, it can, but my ignorance shines on this one. I don’t get that. I LOVED Doctor Strange, but The Jungle Book is ALL GREEN SCREEN. Holy cow! Deepwater Horizon is solid, but just can’t fight with the other entries, and they all have to go up against the Star Wars juggernaut… I have no idea how this will go.
Adapted Screenplay: This is the one chance the Academy has to not shut out such a fantastic film and I think they’ll seize on the opportunity. Arrival may be a distant second with Fences, Lion, and Moonlight scrapping for third, not that we ever find out the rankings.
Original Screenplay: 20th Century Women is BY FAR the most interesting and original. LaLa Land isn’t even close to good as a screenplay. The Lobster is dumb and dark with serious flaws. Hell or High Water is pretty classic, but can’t compete. This is also the Academy’s only real opportunity to recognize Manchester by the Sea and this is the category that it’s probably most deserving in. If it can wrench it away from LaLa Land, it’s got a good chance since 20th Century otherwise didn’t get much recognition.